1 Pub Per Day is Closing in the UK. How Can You Be Sure Yours Isn’t One of Them?
As a prospective publican, you’ve likely seen the doom-and-gloom stories: According to the BBPA, one pub a day is closing in the UK . You may have long dreamt of owning a pub, but may now be wondering whether it’s still worth it..
But as Carroll Accountants Director David Burr points out, ‘In 2007, during our Great Recession, 27 pubs a week closed. So seven a week, in comparison, is not as bad as it was then.’
‘It’s not great at the minute,’ he admits, ‘but it was worse, and we got through it.’
While the challenges facing today’s publicans are real, David believes there’s still reason to be optimistic.
In this post, you’ll discover:
● The major factors leading to pub closures
● Why it’s not all bad news for would-be publicans
● How proactive planning makes the difference between pubs that fail and those that succeed
Why are Pubs Closing in 2025?
To understand how to survive a rough market, you should first understand the reasons why so many pubs are closing.
Taxation
For many publicans, rising business rates and red tape have made it increasingly difficult to stay afloat. David says this is one of the most common frustrations he hears.
The problem is compounded by what many see as an uneven playing field in competition with supermarkets, which charge much lower prices on alcohol.
Labour Costs
Recent increases to the National Minimum Wage have far outpaced inflation, which puts additional pressure on hospitality businesses. Even large pub companies are feeling the strain, David says.
Pubs used to rely on under-21s for a large amount of their labour, but the increased minimum wage for younger populations means this is no longer a viable strategy.
Inflation in the UK has been holding at about 3.8% for the past year, but for 18 to 20-year-olds, the minimum wage went up by 16.3%, which is more than four times inflation. And for 16 to 17-year-olds, it went up by 18%, which is five times inflation.
As David puts it, ‘The government keeps going around bragging how they’ve increased wages, but they’re not paying it — we are.’
Changing Drinking Habits
The pandemic accelerated a shift that was already underway in the UK. When COVID sent us into lockdown, many people who used to drink in pubs every day began to drink at home instead.
‘So when pubs came back, they didn’t get back into the habit,’ David explains. ‘The delivery market went huge, and lots of pubs haven’t really come back from that.’
Broader cultural and demographic changes are shaping drinking behaviour. Some may drink less as they become more health-conscious. Plus, many people who have immigrated to the UK in recent decades may have differing attitudes and habits around alcohol.
‘Drinking culture’s definitely changed,’ David says.
Changing Town Centres
Town centres across the UK have been gradually transformed by redevelopment and shifting priorities. ‘The town centres have become less shops and more domestic accommodation,’ David explains. While this helps revive local housing markets, it creates new challenges for pubs.
Noise complaints, in particular, can have devastating consequences. ‘One person — and I mean one single person — can make a noise complaint and the council can shut you down,’ he says. For pubs that rely on live entertainment, that risk can make the difference between thriving and closing their doors.
Why There’s Reason to Be Optimistic
In spite of these factors, David remains optimistic about the pub trade.
He explains that pubs aren’t always closing because they’re not commercially viable, but because they’re more valuable as something else, like an HMO or supermarket.
And those spiralling business rates? They’re proving highly unpopular, and the government’s reputation has taken a knock.
‘The government has to change something or they’ll get voted out,’ David argues.
A July 2025 article from the BBC supports David’s assertion that relief is on the way: ‘An HM Treasury spokesperson told the BBC the government intends to introduce permanently low tax rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties from next year.’
Lastly, it’s often possible tosecure a favourable deal on the rent for a pub that recently closed or has been trading poorly..
‘There are much better deals out there than there were, say five years ago or twenty years ago,’ David says. ‘Landlords also appreciate the challenges ahead.’
Proactive Planning to Protect Your Pub
As David writes in his new book, The Pub and Bar Business Plan Toolkit, hope isn’t a business model. That means you need to treat your pub like a business, not a dream. If you’re considering letting a pub, take the appropriate measures in advance to be sure you’re prepared for the tough climate.
Find the Right Deal
As we noted in the last section, you can often get a good deal on rent these days. But you may have to search for it. David cautions against falling in love with a ‘chocolate box’ pub before you’ve seen the rent. If the numbers don’t work out, you need to be willing to move on, no matter how quaint and charming it is.
‘It’s a very challenging market to make money, so the deal has got to be right — otherwise you could just be throwing your whole life savings down the drain,’ he warns.
Don’t Just Sell Drinks
Between the British public’s changing drinking habits and the high VAT rate on alcohol, David says it no longer makes sense to run a pub that only sells drinks. Instead, you should plan on a balance of food and drinks, with letting rooms making up a portion of your income if possible.
One way to make the most of your space is to run what’s called a ‘dark kitchen.’ Already common in London, a dark kitchen is a takeaway that runs out of your pub, sometimes as a separate business entity. The dark kitchen serves a different menu, such as Indian or Thai cuisine.
‘I know one client who operated four different takeaway businesses out of his kitchen,’ David says.
A pizzeria can be a particularly cost-effective dark kitchen, David explains, as making pizza doesn’t require a specially trained chef.
Financial Planning and Risk Assessment
Strong financial planning has never been more important for publicans. Turning to an experienced pub accountancy firm like Carroll Accountants has distinct advantages, but here are a few things you should keep in mind:
● When forecasting labour costs, plan not just for inflation but for minimum wage increases, as well.
● Consider the risk of noise complaints, and don’t be overly dependent on live entertainment.
● Revisit your financial plans every three months to adapt to changing markets, government policies, taxes, and so on.
Get Expert Support for Your Pub
Despite the challenges, Carroll Accountants’ clients are performing solidly. ‘Most of my clients are tracking between 7–10% net profit,’ David says. ‘7–10% is surviving and OK. Ten to fifteen percent is good, but rare.’
Running a pub in today’s climate isn’t easy — but you don’t have to face it alone. With years of experience supporting publicans across the UK, Carroll Accountants can help you forecast costs, manage risk, and make sure the numbers stack up before you sign the deal.
If you’re considering taking on a tenancy or want to strengthen your existing business, get in touch with Carroll Accountants for tailored advice from specialists who know the trade inside out.
Contact Carroll Accountants today to protect your profits and plan for long-term success.